Commenting in support or with additional suggestions to this posting is encouraged.
The National Agricultural Research Alliance - Beltsville, NARA-B, continues to seek support for its work. http://www.nara-b.org/
Food Security in the United States: Understanding and Reducing the Impacts of Climate Change in Agriculture
I. Existing legislation on Climate Change
From the 1990 Farm Bill Title XXIV captioned Global Climate Change Prevention Act of 1990 (104. Stat.4058; 7 USC 6701-2), SEC 2403.
STUDY OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY.
(a) CROPS. --
(1) IN GENERAL. – The Secretary shall study the effects of global climate change on agriculture and forestry. The study shall, at a minimum address—
(A) the effects of simultaneous increases in temperature and carbon dioxide on crops of economic significance;
(B) the effects of more frequent or more severe weather events on such crops;
(C) the effects of potential changes in hydrologic regimes on current crop yields;
(D) the economic effects of widespread and increased drought frequency in the south, Midwest and plains states; and
(E) changes in pest problems related to temperature.
(2) FURTHER STUDIES – If the results of the study conducted under paragraph (1) warrant, the Secretary shall conduct further studies that address the means of mitigating the effects of global climate change on crops of economic significance that shall, at a minimum –
(A) identify whether climate change tolerance can be bred into these crops, the amount of time necessary for any such breeding and the effects on the income of farmers;
(B) evaluate existing genetic resources and breeding programs for crops for their ability to develop new varieties that can tolerate potential climate changes; and
(C) assess the potential for the development of crop varieties that are tolerant to climate changes and other environmental stresses, such as drought, pests, and salinity.
Legislative need:
The authorization for appropriation for the 1990 Farm Bill was from FYs 1991 through 1996 (7 USC 6710). It was subsequently amended to extend through FY 1997. New reauthorization for appropriations language to fund the 1990 Farm bill section above is needed. The reauthorization language you need to reinvigorate the Global Climate Change Prevention Act of 1990 would simply read as follows:
“SEC. ___ GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. Section 2412 of the Food, Agriculture, Conservation, and Trade Act of 1990 (7 U.S.C. 6710), as amended by section 843 of Public Law 104-127 (110 Stat. 1170), is further amended by striking “1997” and inserting “2020”.”
II. Agricultural Research Service Climate Change Program Needs
The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) has the potential to enhance its nascent, small climate change research effort ($17 Million in FY 2008) to prepare the nation to cope better with the impacts of climate change and design ways to adapt to it. Below are proposed areas of research that need to be conducted to accomplish that goal. The Economic Research Service has determined that that for every research dollar invested in agricultural research returned about $10 worth of net benefits to the economy (Fuglie and Heisey 2007). We use this statement to provide the potential economic stimulus per year in each of the following research problem areas below.
1. Research problem: Food Safety
Description: Climate change will bring warmer temperatures and additional climatic extremes, particularly more extreme precipitation. How will this impact the epidemiology of food borne pathogens, given that E. coli and Salmonella outbreaks are directly related to temperature? A scientific assessment of the likely impacts and preventive measures is needed.
Annual Budget needed: $ 5 million.
Jobs Created: 45-58 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $470 million.
2. Research problem: Sustainability of Food Production
Description: Crop yields are often more determined by short-term stress episodes than by seasonal mean conditions. Global climate change is predicted to increase total precipitation, the frequency of droughts, as well as episodes of high temperature stress. These stresses could completely offset plants yield increases expected due to the rising carbon dioxide (CO2 ). Very little research on agricultural crops responses to drought and high temperature stress has been conducted at elevated CO2 levels, so the current crops yield projections are highly uncertain. Research is needed to reduce uncertainty and properly assess future agricultural crops yields.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $ 1 billion.
3. Research problem: Water supply for Agriculture
Description: Crop production is heavily dependent on irrigation. In turn, irrigation depends on the snow and ice collected on mountain ranges. Data suggest human-induced global warming has significantly shrunk the ice / snow pack in mountain ranges in the American West. Unless research identifies specific adaptation measures, water and food availability for humans will significantly decline.
Annual Budget needed: $15 million.
Jobs Created: 130-170 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $6 billion.
4. Research problem: Food Nutrition
Description: Rising levels of CO2 affect the nutritional quality of agricultural products. The protein production in plants for breads and cereals is reduced with increasing CO2. Positive effects on the anti-oxidants in strawberries have also been observed. There is a need to reassess the nutritional guidelines for humans.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $2.8 billion.
5. Research problem: Selection of plant varieties
Description: Initial data suggest that a selection among existing agricultural crop lines could be used to adapt crops to climatic extremes (drought, temperature) as well as to exploit the rising carbon dioxide to boost crop yields. No systematic evaluation of crop germplasm has been done. Without such an evaluation, crop yields and agricultural sustainability will be at risk.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $ 1 billion.
6. Research problem: Crop Losses due to Pests
Description: As carbon dioxide rises, will crops or weeds be favored? How will insects and pathogens spread with warmer winters? Initial data suggest that weeds will be more competitive than crops in most cases, causing further reductions in crop yields. There is no published data assessing the susceptibility of US agricultural production to weeds, insects and diseases with rising CO2 and climate change.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $800 million.
7. Research problem: Pest Management
Description: Agricultural productivity is highly dependent on the use of chemicals. Studies indicate that both agronomic and invasive weeds will be harder to control chemically as atmospheric CO2 increases. No data are available with respect to climate interactions with insecticides or fungicides. We need to understand how climate change will change the amount and efficacy of chemicals used in agriculture, and find measures to compensate for it.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $800 million.
8. Research problem: Invasive Species in Agriculture
Description: Introduced invasive species can wreck havoc on economic production and environmental sustainability, including billions of dollars in annual agricultural losses. The total cost of negative impacts of invasive species has been estimated at $138 billion each year (Pimentel,et al, 2005). Having few natural enemies in their introduced country, invasives are limited almost exclusively by climate. How will changing CO2 and increasing minimal temperatures favor the expansion and success of invasive species? For example, cheatgrass, an invasive that creates more frequent fires, is highly responsive to changes in CO2 that have occurred during the 20th century. Without a better understanding of how climate change will impact invasive species biology, accurate estimates regarding invasives environmental and economic impact will remain unknown. At present, there is few data on how climate change will affect invasives spread. No historical data are available to determine how current and past climates have altered the biological success of invasive species.
Annual Budget needed: $90 million.
Jobs Created: 800-1060 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $6.5 billion.
9. Research problem: Aerobiology
Description: Global climate change will result in changes in the production, distribution, dispersal, and potency of allergens produced by weeds, grasses and trees. Numerous uncertainties exist in predicting the effect of climate change on allergy incidence and severity. We need to reduce these uncertainties to have a response that minimizes the impact of plant-based allergies on public health.
Annual Budget needed: $20 million.
Jobs Created: 180-232 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $1.4 billion.
10. Research problem: Toxicology
Description: Plants produce a number of virulent poisons that can result in injury or death. For example, ricin is a well-known toxin produced by castor bean, a common roadside weed. The photosynthesis and growth of poisonous plants respond to temperature and CO2 changes. However, no data on their toxicology are available. Without such data it is unclear how climate change will affect the presence and strength of such poisons.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $350 million.
11. Research problem: Medicines/Pharmacology
Description: Plants remain a primary source for new and existing pharmacology. Initial data indicate that concentration and/or production of these compounds can be altered by CO2 and/or temperature. The basis for these changes is unknown. Without additional research it is unclear which plant-based medicines are likely to be impacted with climate change. Similarly, it is unclear which plant-based narcotics are likely to be benefited or any subsequent effects on their management and/or control.
Annual Budget needed: $20 million.
Jobs Created: 180-232 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $3 billion.
12. Research problem: Plant Species Shifts in Rangelands
Description: Rangelands will experience regional and local changes in temperature and precipitation. The CO2 has already increased to levels not experienced in the past million years and is projected to continue increasing far in the future. Plants have different sensitivities to temperature, precipitation and CO2, and research suggest that plant shifts favoring some species over others is underway in rangelands. Research is needed to better understand such plant species shifts which have a tremendous impact on land’s use. We need to use that knowledge to develop proactive management strategies that will help ranchers and public land managers adapt to climate change.
Annual Budget needed: $ 10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): 3 billion.
13. Research problem: Decision Support Systems
Description: Although the details of how climate change will develop at regional and state levels remains uncertain, there is wide agreement that weather patterns and climate in general are becoming more variable, and that what used to be extreme weather events are becoming more common. Ranchers and public land managers already struggle with managing under the uncertain climatic conditions which presently characterize rangeland agriculture. Research is needed to develop decision support systems that include weather forecasting, periodic monitoring, and integrated decision-making computer models which propose management options to help land mangers deal with increasingly unfamiliar and uncertain weather patterns.
Annual Budget needed: $ 10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $200 million.
14. Research problem: Agricultural Trace Gases
Description: Climate change is driven by the release of so-called trace or greenhouse gases into Earth’s atmosphere, mostly from fossil-fuel burning. Agriculture is involved in all aspects of this problem, being directly affected by climate change. However, agriculture is also a sink or source of greenhouse gases, depending on the particular agricultural enterprise. At present approximately 40% of the greenhouse gases released each year into the atmosphere are captured by terrestrial ecosystems and fixed back into compounds that are not active as greenhouse gases. There is very limited information on how different agricultural practices can be modified to reduce agriculture’s negative contribution to the release of greenhouse gases. Research into how different agro-ecosystems and different management practices affect the exchange of greenhouse gases are needed to learn how agriculture can reduce its terrestrial emissions of trace gases to the atmosphere.
Annual Budget needed: $15 million
Jobs Created: 130-170 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $350 million.
15. Research problem: Nutrient Cycling
Description: The responses of agro-ecosystems are linked to the natural cycling of nutrients upon which plants rely for their growth and development. This especially applies to extensively-managed systems like rangelands where intensive agronomic practices like fertilizer and water additions are impractical. There is some indication that chronic increases of atmospheric CO2 currently underway and climate change will alter the nutrient cycling of agro-ecosystems, disrupting long-established patterns of nutrient cycling by plants and soil organisms. Many details remain to be clarified. The ultimate outcome will have significant implications for the plants and animals which have long adapted to these patterns. For instance, rising CO2, climate change and nitrogen deposition may have long-term impacts on soil fertility, which can affect which crops are suitable for a particular location, or which plant species will prosper and which species will decline in more natural agro-ecosystems like rangelands. Plant attributes like forage quality will decline as a result of reduced soil nitrogen in grasslands exposed to enriched CO2 atmospheres. Research is needed to determine what long-term impacts CO2 enrichment, nitrogen deposition and climate change will have on soil and plant nutrients. We also need to understand the processes responsible for cycling nutrients among the soil, the plants and the atmosphere.
Annual Budget needed: $25 million
Jobs Created: 214-290 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $2 billion.
16. Research problem: Beneficial Organisms in Agriculture.
Description: The responses of agro-ecosystems are linked to the life cycles of beneficial organisms such as bees, earthworms, and micro-organisms that can fix nitrogen. There is almost no information on how these beneficial organisms will respond to rising CO2 or temperature / precipitation changes. Research is needed to understand how these changes are likely to affect the abundance and effectiveness of these organisms with respect to crop yields and agricultural sustainability.
Annual Budget needed: $20 million.
Jobs Created: 180-232 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus: Unknown, beneficial organisms provide so many free goods and services that any change in their biology is incalculable.
III. Implementation Plan to Address ARS Climate Change Program Needs
A. Correlation between the 1990 Global Climate Change Prevention Act of 1990 and the proposed ARS Climate Change Program research problems.
Food Safety (#1) addresses (a) (1) (A) above.
Sustainability of Food Production (#2) addresses (a) (1) (A) and (a) (1) (B) above.
Water Supply for Agriculture (#3) addresses (a) (1) (C) and (a) (1) (D) above.
Food Nutrition (#4) addresses (a) (1) (A) and (a) (1) (B)
Selection of Plant Varieties (#5) addresses (a)(2)(A), (a)(2)(B) and (a)(2)(C).
Crop Losses / Pests, Pest Management (# 6, #7) addresses (a)(1)(E) above.
Invasive Species in Agriculture (#8) addresses (a)(1)(E) and (a)(2)(C) above.
Aerobiology (#9) addresses (a)(1)(E) above.
Toxicology, Medicines/Pharmacology/Narcotics (#10, #11) addresses (a)(1)(E) above.
Species Shifts (# 12) addresses (a)(1)(B), (a)(1)(D) and (a)(1)(E).
Decision Support Systems (#13) (a) (1) (A)
Agricultural Trace Gases (#14) (a) (1) (A) and (a) (1) (B)
Nutrient Cycling (#15) (a) (1) (A), (a ) (1) (B), (a) (1) (C), (a) (1) (D)
Beneficial Organisms (#16) (a) (1) (E)
B. Annual Implementation Plan for ARS Climate Change Program
YEAR 1. Cost: $180 Million
Initiate ARS research in the following problem areas ($180 million):
Food Safety (#1) ($5 million).
Sustainability of Food Production (#2) ($10 million).
Water Supply for Agriculture (#3) ($15 million).
Food Nutrition and Quality (#4) ($10 million).
Crop Losses / Pests, Pest Management (# 6, #7) ($20 million).
Invasive Species in Agriculture (#8) ($90 million).
Selection of Plant Varieties (#5) ($30 million).
YEAR 2. Cost: $180 Million
Continue ARS research in the following problem areas ($120 million):
Food Safety (#1) ($5 million).
Sustainability of Food Production (#2) ($10 million).
Water Supply for Agriculture (#3) ($15 million).
Food Nutrition and Quality (#4) (10 Million).
Crop Losses / Pests, Pest Management (# 6, #7) ($20 million).
Invasive Species in Agriculture (#8) ($30 million).
Selection of Plant Varieties (#5) ($30 million).
Initiate ARS research in the following problem areas ($60 million):
Aerobiology (#9) ($20 million).
Toxicology, Medicines/Pharmacology/Narcotics (#10, #11) ($30 million).
Species Shifts (# 12) ($10 million).
YEAR 3. Cost: $ 225 million
Continue ARS research in the following problem areas ($155 million):
Food Safety (#1) ($5 million).
Sustainability of Food Production (#2) ($10 million).
Water Supply for Agriculture (#3) ($20 million).
Food Nutrition Quality (#4) (10 million)
Crop Losses / Pests, Pest Management (# 6, #7) ($10 million).
Invasive Species in Agriculture (#8) ($30 million).
Selection of Plant Varieties (#5) ($30 million).
Aerobiology (#9) ($5 million).
Toxicology, Medicines/Pharmacology/Narcotics, (#10, #11) ($30 million).
Plant Species Shifts (# 12) ($10 million).
Initiate ARS research in the following problem areas ($70 million):
Decision Support Systems (#13) ($10 million).
Agricultural Trace Gases (#14) ($15 million).
Nutritent Cycling (#15) ($25 million).
Beneficial Organisms (#16) ($20 million).
YEAR 4. Cost: $230 million
Continue ARS research in the following problem areas ($230 million):
Food Safety (#1) ($5 million).
Sustainability of Food Production (#2) ($10 million).
Water Supply for Agriculture (#3) ($20 million).
Food Nutrition and Quality (#4) (10 million)
Crop Losses / Pests, Pest Management (# 6, #7) ($10 million).
Invasive Species in Agriculture (#8) ($30 million).
Selection of Plant Varieties (#5) ($30 million).
Aerobiology (#9) ($5 million).
Toxicology, Medicines/Pharmacology/Narcotics (#10, #11) ($30 million).
Plant Species Shifts (# 12) ($10 million).
Decision Support Systems (#13) ($10 million).
Agricultural Trace Gases (#14) ($15 million).
Nutritent Cycling (#15) ($25 million).
Beneficial Organisms (#16) ($20 million).
YEARS 5 to 10. Cost: $250 million per year to continue research in 16 problem areas described above, including funds for inflation impacts on the program.
IV. Summary
Agency: Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture.
Program Enhanced: Global Climate Change.
Program cost/investment for 10 years. $2.9 billion.
Total number of jobs created in 10 years: 2480 (Public)-3200 (Private) (Note: The lower figure includes 1 PhD for 2 technicians, the second number includes only college graduates with a degree in science. Salaries are either from the Federal Register or from http://www.simplyhired.com/).
Potential Economic Stimulus in 10 years: $290-$300 billion.
V. Bibliography
Buzby J.C., Roberts T., Jordan-Lin C.T., MacDonald J.M. 1996. Bacterial foodborne
disease: MedicalCosts and Productivity Losses. Afgricultural Economics Report No. (AER741), 100 pages.
Fuglie KO, Heisey P.W. 2007. Economic returns to public agricultural research.
Economic Brief No. 10, USDA-AERS,
Hatfield JL., et al. 2008. The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources and Biodiversity. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 Climate Change Science Program Office, Washington D.C.
NAST, National Assessment Synthesis Team. 2000. Climate change impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. US Global Change Research Program, Washington DC 363 pages.
National Research Council 2002. Predicting invasions of non-indigenous plants and
plant pests National Academy Press, Washington D.C. 194 pages.
Newton PC.D., Carran R.A., Edwards, G.R., Niklaus P.A. 2007 Agroecosystems in a
ChangingClimate, CRC Press, 364 pages.
Pimental D, Zuniga R, Morrison D 2005. Update on the environmental and
economic costs associated alien-invasive species in the United States.
Ecological Economics. 52:273-288.
Ruth M, Coelho D, Karetnikov D 2007. The US Economic Impacts of Climate
Change and the Costs ofInaction. Center for Interative Enviornmental Research (CIER), University of Maryland, College Park, 48 pages.
I. Existing legislation on Climate Change
From the 1990 Farm Bill Title XXIV captioned Global Climate Change Prevention Act of 1990 (104. Stat.4058; 7 USC 6701-2), SEC 2403.
STUDY OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY.
(a) CROPS. --
(1) IN GENERAL. – The Secretary shall study the effects of global climate change on agriculture and forestry. The study shall, at a minimum address—
(A) the effects of simultaneous increases in temperature and carbon dioxide on crops of economic significance;
(B) the effects of more frequent or more severe weather events on such crops;
(C) the effects of potential changes in hydrologic regimes on current crop yields;
(D) the economic effects of widespread and increased drought frequency in the south, Midwest and plains states; and
(E) changes in pest problems related to temperature.
(2) FURTHER STUDIES – If the results of the study conducted under paragraph (1) warrant, the Secretary shall conduct further studies that address the means of mitigating the effects of global climate change on crops of economic significance that shall, at a minimum –
(A) identify whether climate change tolerance can be bred into these crops, the amount of time necessary for any such breeding and the effects on the income of farmers;
(B) evaluate existing genetic resources and breeding programs for crops for their ability to develop new varieties that can tolerate potential climate changes; and
(C) assess the potential for the development of crop varieties that are tolerant to climate changes and other environmental stresses, such as drought, pests, and salinity.
Legislative need:
The authorization for appropriation for the 1990 Farm Bill was from FYs 1991 through 1996 (7 USC 6710). It was subsequently amended to extend through FY 1997. New reauthorization for appropriations language to fund the 1990 Farm bill section above is needed. The reauthorization language you need to reinvigorate the Global Climate Change Prevention Act of 1990 would simply read as follows:
“SEC. ___ GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. Section 2412 of the Food, Agriculture, Conservation, and Trade Act of 1990 (7 U.S.C. 6710), as amended by section 843 of Public Law 104-127 (110 Stat. 1170), is further amended by striking “1997” and inserting “2020”.”
II. Agricultural Research Service Climate Change Program Needs
The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Agricultural Research Service (ARS) has the potential to enhance its nascent, small climate change research effort ($17 Million in FY 2008) to prepare the nation to cope better with the impacts of climate change and design ways to adapt to it. Below are proposed areas of research that need to be conducted to accomplish that goal. The Economic Research Service has determined that that for every research dollar invested in agricultural research returned about $10 worth of net benefits to the economy (Fuglie and Heisey 2007). We use this statement to provide the potential economic stimulus per year in each of the following research problem areas below.
1. Research problem: Food Safety
Description: Climate change will bring warmer temperatures and additional climatic extremes, particularly more extreme precipitation. How will this impact the epidemiology of food borne pathogens, given that E. coli and Salmonella outbreaks are directly related to temperature? A scientific assessment of the likely impacts and preventive measures is needed.
Annual Budget needed: $ 5 million.
Jobs Created: 45-58 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $470 million.
2. Research problem: Sustainability of Food Production
Description: Crop yields are often more determined by short-term stress episodes than by seasonal mean conditions. Global climate change is predicted to increase total precipitation, the frequency of droughts, as well as episodes of high temperature stress. These stresses could completely offset plants yield increases expected due to the rising carbon dioxide (CO2 ). Very little research on agricultural crops responses to drought and high temperature stress has been conducted at elevated CO2 levels, so the current crops yield projections are highly uncertain. Research is needed to reduce uncertainty and properly assess future agricultural crops yields.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $ 1 billion.
3. Research problem: Water supply for Agriculture
Description: Crop production is heavily dependent on irrigation. In turn, irrigation depends on the snow and ice collected on mountain ranges. Data suggest human-induced global warming has significantly shrunk the ice / snow pack in mountain ranges in the American West. Unless research identifies specific adaptation measures, water and food availability for humans will significantly decline.
Annual Budget needed: $15 million.
Jobs Created: 130-170 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $6 billion.
4. Research problem: Food Nutrition
Description: Rising levels of CO2 affect the nutritional quality of agricultural products. The protein production in plants for breads and cereals is reduced with increasing CO2. Positive effects on the anti-oxidants in strawberries have also been observed. There is a need to reassess the nutritional guidelines for humans.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $2.8 billion.
5. Research problem: Selection of plant varieties
Description: Initial data suggest that a selection among existing agricultural crop lines could be used to adapt crops to climatic extremes (drought, temperature) as well as to exploit the rising carbon dioxide to boost crop yields. No systematic evaluation of crop germplasm has been done. Without such an evaluation, crop yields and agricultural sustainability will be at risk.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $ 1 billion.
6. Research problem: Crop Losses due to Pests
Description: As carbon dioxide rises, will crops or weeds be favored? How will insects and pathogens spread with warmer winters? Initial data suggest that weeds will be more competitive than crops in most cases, causing further reductions in crop yields. There is no published data assessing the susceptibility of US agricultural production to weeds, insects and diseases with rising CO2 and climate change.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $800 million.
7. Research problem: Pest Management
Description: Agricultural productivity is highly dependent on the use of chemicals. Studies indicate that both agronomic and invasive weeds will be harder to control chemically as atmospheric CO2 increases. No data are available with respect to climate interactions with insecticides or fungicides. We need to understand how climate change will change the amount and efficacy of chemicals used in agriculture, and find measures to compensate for it.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $800 million.
8. Research problem: Invasive Species in Agriculture
Description: Introduced invasive species can wreck havoc on economic production and environmental sustainability, including billions of dollars in annual agricultural losses. The total cost of negative impacts of invasive species has been estimated at $138 billion each year (Pimentel,et al, 2005). Having few natural enemies in their introduced country, invasives are limited almost exclusively by climate. How will changing CO2 and increasing minimal temperatures favor the expansion and success of invasive species? For example, cheatgrass, an invasive that creates more frequent fires, is highly responsive to changes in CO2 that have occurred during the 20th century. Without a better understanding of how climate change will impact invasive species biology, accurate estimates regarding invasives environmental and economic impact will remain unknown. At present, there is few data on how climate change will affect invasives spread. No historical data are available to determine how current and past climates have altered the biological success of invasive species.
Annual Budget needed: $90 million.
Jobs Created: 800-1060 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $6.5 billion.
9. Research problem: Aerobiology
Description: Global climate change will result in changes in the production, distribution, dispersal, and potency of allergens produced by weeds, grasses and trees. Numerous uncertainties exist in predicting the effect of climate change on allergy incidence and severity. We need to reduce these uncertainties to have a response that minimizes the impact of plant-based allergies on public health.
Annual Budget needed: $20 million.
Jobs Created: 180-232 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $1.4 billion.
10. Research problem: Toxicology
Description: Plants produce a number of virulent poisons that can result in injury or death. For example, ricin is a well-known toxin produced by castor bean, a common roadside weed. The photosynthesis and growth of poisonous plants respond to temperature and CO2 changes. However, no data on their toxicology are available. Without such data it is unclear how climate change will affect the presence and strength of such poisons.
Annual Budget needed: $10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $350 million.
11. Research problem: Medicines/Pharmacology
Description: Plants remain a primary source for new and existing pharmacology. Initial data indicate that concentration and/or production of these compounds can be altered by CO2 and/or temperature. The basis for these changes is unknown. Without additional research it is unclear which plant-based medicines are likely to be impacted with climate change. Similarly, it is unclear which plant-based narcotics are likely to be benefited or any subsequent effects on their management and/or control.
Annual Budget needed: $20 million.
Jobs Created: 180-232 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $3 billion.
12. Research problem: Plant Species Shifts in Rangelands
Description: Rangelands will experience regional and local changes in temperature and precipitation. The CO2 has already increased to levels not experienced in the past million years and is projected to continue increasing far in the future. Plants have different sensitivities to temperature, precipitation and CO2, and research suggest that plant shifts favoring some species over others is underway in rangelands. Research is needed to better understand such plant species shifts which have a tremendous impact on land’s use. We need to use that knowledge to develop proactive management strategies that will help ranchers and public land managers adapt to climate change.
Annual Budget needed: $ 10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): 3 billion.
13. Research problem: Decision Support Systems
Description: Although the details of how climate change will develop at regional and state levels remains uncertain, there is wide agreement that weather patterns and climate in general are becoming more variable, and that what used to be extreme weather events are becoming more common. Ranchers and public land managers already struggle with managing under the uncertain climatic conditions which presently characterize rangeland agriculture. Research is needed to develop decision support systems that include weather forecasting, periodic monitoring, and integrated decision-making computer models which propose management options to help land mangers deal with increasingly unfamiliar and uncertain weather patterns.
Annual Budget needed: $ 10 million.
Jobs Created: 90-116 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $200 million.
14. Research problem: Agricultural Trace Gases
Description: Climate change is driven by the release of so-called trace or greenhouse gases into Earth’s atmosphere, mostly from fossil-fuel burning. Agriculture is involved in all aspects of this problem, being directly affected by climate change. However, agriculture is also a sink or source of greenhouse gases, depending on the particular agricultural enterprise. At present approximately 40% of the greenhouse gases released each year into the atmosphere are captured by terrestrial ecosystems and fixed back into compounds that are not active as greenhouse gases. There is very limited information on how different agricultural practices can be modified to reduce agriculture’s negative contribution to the release of greenhouse gases. Research into how different agro-ecosystems and different management practices affect the exchange of greenhouse gases are needed to learn how agriculture can reduce its terrestrial emissions of trace gases to the atmosphere.
Annual Budget needed: $15 million
Jobs Created: 130-170 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $350 million.
15. Research problem: Nutrient Cycling
Description: The responses of agro-ecosystems are linked to the natural cycling of nutrients upon which plants rely for their growth and development. This especially applies to extensively-managed systems like rangelands where intensive agronomic practices like fertilizer and water additions are impractical. There is some indication that chronic increases of atmospheric CO2 currently underway and climate change will alter the nutrient cycling of agro-ecosystems, disrupting long-established patterns of nutrient cycling by plants and soil organisms. Many details remain to be clarified. The ultimate outcome will have significant implications for the plants and animals which have long adapted to these patterns. For instance, rising CO2, climate change and nitrogen deposition may have long-term impacts on soil fertility, which can affect which crops are suitable for a particular location, or which plant species will prosper and which species will decline in more natural agro-ecosystems like rangelands. Plant attributes like forage quality will decline as a result of reduced soil nitrogen in grasslands exposed to enriched CO2 atmospheres. Research is needed to determine what long-term impacts CO2 enrichment, nitrogen deposition and climate change will have on soil and plant nutrients. We also need to understand the processes responsible for cycling nutrients among the soil, the plants and the atmosphere.
Annual Budget needed: $25 million
Jobs Created: 214-290 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus (per year): $2 billion.
16. Research problem: Beneficial Organisms in Agriculture.
Description: The responses of agro-ecosystems are linked to the life cycles of beneficial organisms such as bees, earthworms, and micro-organisms that can fix nitrogen. There is almost no information on how these beneficial organisms will respond to rising CO2 or temperature / precipitation changes. Research is needed to understand how these changes are likely to affect the abundance and effectiveness of these organisms with respect to crop yields and agricultural sustainability.
Annual Budget needed: $20 million.
Jobs Created: 180-232 scientific and technical positions.
Potential Economic Stimulus: Unknown, beneficial organisms provide so many free goods and services that any change in their biology is incalculable.
III. Implementation Plan to Address ARS Climate Change Program Needs
A. Correlation between the 1990 Global Climate Change Prevention Act of 1990 and the proposed ARS Climate Change Program research problems.
Food Safety (#1) addresses (a) (1) (A) above.
Sustainability of Food Production (#2) addresses (a) (1) (A) and (a) (1) (B) above.
Water Supply for Agriculture (#3) addresses (a) (1) (C) and (a) (1) (D) above.
Food Nutrition (#4) addresses (a) (1) (A) and (a) (1) (B)
Selection of Plant Varieties (#5) addresses (a)(2)(A), (a)(2)(B) and (a)(2)(C).
Crop Losses / Pests, Pest Management (# 6, #7) addresses (a)(1)(E) above.
Invasive Species in Agriculture (#8) addresses (a)(1)(E) and (a)(2)(C) above.
Aerobiology (#9) addresses (a)(1)(E) above.
Toxicology, Medicines/Pharmacology/Narcotics (#10, #11) addresses (a)(1)(E) above.
Species Shifts (# 12) addresses (a)(1)(B), (a)(1)(D) and (a)(1)(E).
Decision Support Systems (#13) (a) (1) (A)
Agricultural Trace Gases (#14) (a) (1) (A) and (a) (1) (B)
Nutrient Cycling (#15) (a) (1) (A), (a ) (1) (B), (a) (1) (C), (a) (1) (D)
Beneficial Organisms (#16) (a) (1) (E)
B. Annual Implementation Plan for ARS Climate Change Program
YEAR 1. Cost: $180 Million
Initiate ARS research in the following problem areas ($180 million):
Food Safety (#1) ($5 million).
Sustainability of Food Production (#2) ($10 million).
Water Supply for Agriculture (#3) ($15 million).
Food Nutrition and Quality (#4) ($10 million).
Crop Losses / Pests, Pest Management (# 6, #7) ($20 million).
Invasive Species in Agriculture (#8) ($90 million).
Selection of Plant Varieties (#5) ($30 million).
YEAR 2. Cost: $180 Million
Continue ARS research in the following problem areas ($120 million):
Food Safety (#1) ($5 million).
Sustainability of Food Production (#2) ($10 million).
Water Supply for Agriculture (#3) ($15 million).
Food Nutrition and Quality (#4) (10 Million).
Crop Losses / Pests, Pest Management (# 6, #7) ($20 million).
Invasive Species in Agriculture (#8) ($30 million).
Selection of Plant Varieties (#5) ($30 million).
Initiate ARS research in the following problem areas ($60 million):
Aerobiology (#9) ($20 million).
Toxicology, Medicines/Pharmacology/Narcotics (#10, #11) ($30 million).
Species Shifts (# 12) ($10 million).
YEAR 3. Cost: $ 225 million
Continue ARS research in the following problem areas ($155 million):
Food Safety (#1) ($5 million).
Sustainability of Food Production (#2) ($10 million).
Water Supply for Agriculture (#3) ($20 million).
Food Nutrition Quality (#4) (10 million)
Crop Losses / Pests, Pest Management (# 6, #7) ($10 million).
Invasive Species in Agriculture (#8) ($30 million).
Selection of Plant Varieties (#5) ($30 million).
Aerobiology (#9) ($5 million).
Toxicology, Medicines/Pharmacology/Narcotics, (#10, #11) ($30 million).
Plant Species Shifts (# 12) ($10 million).
Initiate ARS research in the following problem areas ($70 million):
Decision Support Systems (#13) ($10 million).
Agricultural Trace Gases (#14) ($15 million).
Nutritent Cycling (#15) ($25 million).
Beneficial Organisms (#16) ($20 million).
YEAR 4. Cost: $230 million
Continue ARS research in the following problem areas ($230 million):
Food Safety (#1) ($5 million).
Sustainability of Food Production (#2) ($10 million).
Water Supply for Agriculture (#3) ($20 million).
Food Nutrition and Quality (#4) (10 million)
Crop Losses / Pests, Pest Management (# 6, #7) ($10 million).
Invasive Species in Agriculture (#8) ($30 million).
Selection of Plant Varieties (#5) ($30 million).
Aerobiology (#9) ($5 million).
Toxicology, Medicines/Pharmacology/Narcotics (#10, #11) ($30 million).
Plant Species Shifts (# 12) ($10 million).
Decision Support Systems (#13) ($10 million).
Agricultural Trace Gases (#14) ($15 million).
Nutritent Cycling (#15) ($25 million).
Beneficial Organisms (#16) ($20 million).
YEARS 5 to 10. Cost: $250 million per year to continue research in 16 problem areas described above, including funds for inflation impacts on the program.
IV. Summary
Agency: Agricultural Research Service, US Department of Agriculture.
Program Enhanced: Global Climate Change.
Program cost/investment for 10 years. $2.9 billion.
Total number of jobs created in 10 years: 2480 (Public)-3200 (Private) (Note: The lower figure includes 1 PhD for 2 technicians, the second number includes only college graduates with a degree in science. Salaries are either from the Federal Register or from http://www.simplyhired.com/).
Potential Economic Stimulus in 10 years: $290-$300 billion.
V. Bibliography
Buzby J.C., Roberts T., Jordan-Lin C.T., MacDonald J.M. 1996. Bacterial foodborne
disease: MedicalCosts and Productivity Losses. Afgricultural Economics Report No. (AER741), 100 pages.
Fuglie KO, Heisey P.W. 2007. Economic returns to public agricultural research.
Economic Brief No. 10, USDA-AERS,
Hatfield JL., et al. 2008. The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources and Biodiversity. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 Climate Change Science Program Office, Washington D.C.
NAST, National Assessment Synthesis Team. 2000. Climate change impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. US Global Change Research Program, Washington DC 363 pages.
National Research Council 2002. Predicting invasions of non-indigenous plants and
plant pests National Academy Press, Washington D.C. 194 pages.
Newton PC.D., Carran R.A., Edwards, G.R., Niklaus P.A. 2007 Agroecosystems in a
ChangingClimate, CRC Press, 364 pages.
Pimental D, Zuniga R, Morrison D 2005. Update on the environmental and
economic costs associated alien-invasive species in the United States.
Ecological Economics. 52:273-288.
Ruth M, Coelho D, Karetnikov D 2007. The US Economic Impacts of Climate
Change and the Costs ofInaction. Center for Interative Enviornmental Research (CIER), University of Maryland, College Park, 48 pages.
No comments:
Post a Comment